diff --git a/src/script.md b/src/script.md index a002eab..274a083 100644 --- a/src/script.md +++ b/src/script.md @@ -1,6 +1,8 @@ +[note: "beat" will be an establishing shot of the hunting blind] + # i am not a hunter -Autumn is my favorite season. The horror genre is in the mainstream entertainment channels. The temperature is in the 60's. The leaves are in color. The women are in yoga pants. The pumpkin spice is in god damned everything, including my veins. And the wildlife - specifically the tastier speces - are allowed to be hunted. +Autumn is my favorite season. The horror genre is in the mainstream entertainment channels. The temperature is in the 60's. The pumpkin spice is in god damned everything, including my veins. The leaves are in color. The women are in yoga pants. And the wildlife - specifically the tastier speces - are allowed to be hunted. [show self in hunting gear] [elmer fudd impression] be vewwy vewwy quiet. we'we hunting cwiptids. @@ -9,8 +11,9 @@ be vewwy vewwy quiet. we'we hunting cwiptids. [hiking? sitting in a hunting blind?] On rare occasion I do get a tiny amount of flak for the practice of hunting. generally when I'm spending any time socializing with anyone, food is involved. So i *could* return with something like, we just ate meat, so is there a moral issue with doing more of the work myself? -But I've gone for a gentler approach with some self deprecating humor; i have never successfully harvested any animal, ever. Is it really hunting, or is it paying for a license to wake up before dawn to carry 20 lbs of crap on a glorified hike? -Hopefully that's funny, because unfortunately it's true. +But I've gone for a gentler approach with some self deprecating humor; i have never successfully harvested any animal, ever. Is it really hunting, or is it paying for a license to wake up before dawn to carry 20 lbs of crap on a glorified hike? Hopefully that's funny, because unfortunately it's true. I am not, strictly speaking, a hunter. + +[beat] Sitting in a blind for hours is depressing. Partially due to sleep deprivation, sure. But i'm beginning to doubt that deer exist. I've seen them, in person, in the past. Right? was that even real? I hate sitting in silence. But what's the difference doing that in a hunting blind, at home, out in public? @@ -31,23 +34,23 @@ Your patience will be rewarded. Your efforts will pay off. Have faith. Ok, for real. Deer exist, I know. I know because I have evidence. [alternate] BOLD statement. Have you disproved Godel, and developed a framework for determining truth that requires no axioms? have you out-logic'd renee descartes and proven anything at all, when you could be a brain in a jar? have you done what CGP grey is afraid to, and ventured through the "What Is True" dimension, returning unscathed? Respectively; no, no, and not entirely but maybe a tiny bit? You can only *approach* 0 faith, like an asymptote. Acknowledging that gives you a heuristic to weigh the validity of evidence. -People talking about something's existence is not evidence. but I can buy some laughably overpriced venison in the store, right now. Granted, the fact that someone would lie to everyone and argue it's ok because it makes money is... really... how the world works. at the moment. Presumably forever. One person proposes one thing, and doesn't get interrogated. +People talking about something's existence is not evidence. but I can buy some laughably overpriced venison in the store, right now. Although, that could be false advertising. This would be the same grocery store that puts some corn syrup in some sake and calls it mirin. Not just mirin, but they specifically label their aji mirin as "hon" mirin. the fact that someone would lie to everyone and argue it's ok because it makes money is... really... how the world works. at the moment. Presumably forever. One person proposes one thing, and doesn't get interrogated. ## hyperlitigator -Consider the most terrifying cryptid in my culture: the Hyperlitigator. Imagine a cold blooded reptile, emerging from a swamp, and snapping its jaws shut over a slight legal loophole. By twisting the court to its will (how hard could it be), it can extract financially ruinous judgments from poor, long-suffering job creators. +Consider the most terrifying cryptid in my culture: the Hyperlitigator. Imagine a cold blooded reptile, emerging from a swamp, and snapping its jaws shut over a slight legal loophole. By twisting the court to its will (how hard could that be), it can extract financially ruinous judgments from poor, long-suffering job creators. ### food donation For years, retailers said the reason they don't donate food is that they're afraid of getting sued. projects to solve food insecurity [https://foodtank.com/news/2024/12/zero-waste-strategies-tackles-liability-fears-in-food-donation/] have mostly been campaigns in reducing food waste by assuring retailers that it'll be fine. Meanwhile various meal ingredient services have marketed themselves as solving hunger by reducing food waste. which is silly, if they have any effect it's to shift food waste into packaging waste. -no one has ever sued for being saved from starvation. nevertheless the US passed the Bill Emerson Good Samaritan Act of 1996 to encourage donation - all it does is assure they can't be sued. +no one has ever sued for being saved from starvation. nevertheless the US passed the Bill Emerson Good Samaritan Act of 1996 to encourage donation - all it does is assure retailers they can't be sued. Maybe it worked. I can't find anything about how much food is donated per year since then. ### california prop 65 -have you noticed that essentially every product ever has "the california proposition 65 warning"? in 1986, California voters banded together to say hey maybe it would be nice if we could avoid being poisoned a bit. +have you noticed that essentially every product ever has the "california proposition 65 warning"? in 1986, California voters banded together to say hey maybe it would be nice if we could avoid being poisoned a bit. You had better believe that every. single. time. a company has to admit that their product is toxic, they frontload the state they want you to hate, and then the legal precedent they want you to dismiss. They want you to find it tedious. They want you to think it's dumb, and take their side against the threat of lawsuit. It was a publicity stunt to get some politician elected. [//TODO: veritasium video] @@ -59,7 +62,7 @@ One of the inspirations for this episode was someone convinced that people dry t [fact or fiction guy, john walker? john something or other?] never happened. It's an urban legend. [screenshot of Colyne] -the myth endurse +the myth endures, though. ### Hot beverages are hot @@ -87,11 +90,11 @@ you remember when cracker barrel had a redesign? It's current at time of writing [tv: jacksfilms "what does woke even mean"] [2 strawmen. 1 holding a sign: "haha, i don't know what you mean by "woke""] It kicked off a discussion on the left where they made fun of the right for the fact that the left wing doesn't know what "woke" means. -a company with a recognizable - if hokey - aesthetic has """streamlined""" to a hollow nothing that you couldn't pick out of a lineup with any of their so-called competitors. There is one culture, one aesthetic. and it is inoffensive. noncommittal. bland. +a company with a recognizable - if hokey - aesthetic has """streamlined""" to a hollow nothing that you couldn't pick out of a lineup from any of their so-called competitors. There is one culture, one aesthetic. and it is inoffensive. noncommittal. bland. [fade up some communist anthem] as usual, the soul has been sacrificed on the altar of capitalism. [cut music] -this sounds much more like something I'd complain about than your stereotypical maga fascist. but then again, cracker barrel is a restaurant that has a very "country" aesthetic. if we remember the "brad's wife" fiasco, the customer base skews boomer. The kind of person who aren't worried about a deep fried steak with a side of pork sausage cutting their life expectancy - they only anticipate another few years already. +this sounds much more like something I'd complain about than your stereotypical maga fascist. but then again, cracker barrel is a restaurant that has a very "country" aesthetic. if we remember the "brad's wife" fiasco, the customer base skews boomer. The kind of person who aren't worried about a deep fried steak with a side of pork sausage cutting their life expectancy - they only anticipate another few years anyway. I searched. Article after article, most maintaining a proper level of neutrality, but eventually - finally - paydirt. I found him. The ONE GUY who thought the redesign was soulless, and... **woke**. That's all. He's it. I have not found anyone else. As far as I know, his world also thinks he's weird. @@ -123,13 +126,13 @@ anyway, in 4 years I guess that'd be.. hang on let me grab a shell... success chance is 30%, roll 4 times... failure chance for 1 run would be 1 minus success chance. so the chance of failing all 4 years would be failure chance to the power of 4. and so the chance of any other outcome, i.e. succeeding in 1 or more year, would be 1 minus that, which would be... just under 76%. You see how that works, warframe wiki?! -Ok warframe, like any freemium game, has an element of gambling. The majority of what you spend real money on is gauranteed odds. Or, more cynically, you're paying them money in order to *not* play the game. Which is why when I saw the ludicrous resource cost for cryotic for sibear, I vowed to master every weapon in the game except that. I had that done, for a second there, but they're continually updating it. +warframe, like any freemium game, has an element of gambling. The majority of what you spend real money on is guaranteed odds. Or, more cynically, you're paying them money in order to *not* play the game. Which is why when I saw the ludicrous resource cost for cryotic for sibear, I vowed to master every weapon in the game except that. I had that done, for a second there, until they added more weapons. Anyway. While we're looking at the warframe wiki... In order to sell in china, they had to publicly disclose their drop rates. (what a cool thing for China to have done for its citizens. do you think they also disallow forced arbitration? oh, no, they're on the same page as us with that, damn.) So as a result of the public drop table, we get to see charts like this. [nekros acquisition] to get Nekros, a.k.a. the best warframe [alternate] he said, very transparently baiting comments. Look, in the game about shooting stuff to get loot to build gear to more effectively shoot stuff, etc... Nekros increases the loot you get. best. -[alternate2] hey, focus. **to get nekros**... +[alternate2] focus. **to get nekros**... ...you do the lephantis assassination. looking at the table, your inference is correct; lephantis will definitely always drop... precisely 1 of those 3 pieces. there is no world where you do that mission less than 3 times. that distinction doesn't really matter in practice. You do it once, you definitely have 1 piece. You do it a second time, you probably have 2 out of the 3 pieces. once you're in that situation, you ask yourself: how many runs do I do to get the last piece? This table helpfully says you're "nearly guaranteed" at 17 ish kills. It also says it's "expected" at 3 kills. what do those words mean? there's a link: > For more detailed definitions and information, visit here. @@ -149,9 +152,12 @@ That's not how expected value works. Expected value is the other side of this! s That shows rolling a dice, averaging out. as in, "i have rolled a d6 with this number of pips showing, on average". if I roll one time, and roll a 2, my "average value" is 2. if I roll a second time, and roll a 6, now my "average value" is 4. The "expected value" is 3.5. as in, if I keep rolling many times, [point out bottom of graph] *then* my average will *converge on* 3.5. -whoever it was that introduced this math is lost to the sands of time. for this game all about random drops, that person's peculiar concept of "expected" is on a massive portion of the pages across the wiki! - -maybe I, just one guy, can convince the rest of the world of the random things I insist on. Who knows what the odds are of that, though. +whoever it was that introduced this math is lost to the sands of time. for this game all about random drops, that person's peculiar concept of "expected" is on a massive portion of the pages across the wiki! +What are the odds that just one guy can convince that wiki's community that this notion of expected value is weird? +[beat] +what are the odds that I, just one guy, can convince the rest of the world of any of the random things I insist on? +Surely they're so staggeringly low as to be negligible. +[alternate] people win the lottery every day. [beat] I once heard someone say deer are "crepuscular", meaning they're active around sunrise and sunset. as opposed to being nocturnal, like bats, or diurnal, like (well-behaved) humans. @@ -160,4 +166,3 @@ I don't know what a deer considers "after" dawn. [beat] [hike back] -(ignore me, debugging the podcastification process)