From 3af54047a070512b04e45f96856b74aff8325e7e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: adam Date: Wed, 10 Sep 2025 01:29:25 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] yet another draft --- src/script.md | 27 +++++++++++++++------------ 1 file changed, 15 insertions(+), 12 deletions(-) diff --git a/src/script.md b/src/script.md index 274a083..b37775d 100644 --- a/src/script.md +++ b/src/script.md @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ be vewwy vewwy quiet. we'we hunting cwiptids. On rare occasion I do get a tiny amount of flak for the practice of hunting. generally when I'm spending any time socializing with anyone, food is involved. So i *could* return with something like, we just ate meat, so is there a moral issue with doing more of the work myself? But I've gone for a gentler approach with some self deprecating humor; i have never successfully harvested any animal, ever. Is it really hunting, or is it paying for a license to wake up before dawn to carry 20 lbs of crap on a glorified hike? Hopefully that's funny, because unfortunately it's true. I am not, strictly speaking, a hunter. -[beat] +[long beat] Sitting in a blind for hours is depressing. Partially due to sleep deprivation, sure. But i'm beginning to doubt that deer exist. I've seen them, in person, in the past. Right? was that even real? I hate sitting in silence. But what's the difference doing that in a hunting blind, at home, out in public? @@ -34,7 +34,8 @@ Your patience will be rewarded. Your efforts will pay off. Have faith. Ok, for real. Deer exist, I know. I know because I have evidence. [alternate] BOLD statement. Have you disproved Godel, and developed a framework for determining truth that requires no axioms? have you out-logic'd renee descartes and proven anything at all, when you could be a brain in a jar? have you done what CGP grey is afraid to, and ventured through the "What Is True" dimension, returning unscathed? Respectively; no, no, and not entirely but maybe a tiny bit? You can only *approach* 0 faith, like an asymptote. Acknowledging that gives you a heuristic to weigh the validity of evidence. -People talking about something's existence is not evidence. but I can buy some laughably overpriced venison in the store, right now. Although, that could be false advertising. This would be the same grocery store that puts some corn syrup in some sake and calls it mirin. Not just mirin, but they specifically label their aji mirin as "hon" mirin. the fact that someone would lie to everyone and argue it's ok because it makes money is... really... how the world works. at the moment. Presumably forever. One person proposes one thing, and doesn't get interrogated. +People talking about something's existence is not evidence. but I can buy some laughably overpriced venison in the store, right now. Although, that could be false advertising. This would be the same place selling some corn syrup in some sake labelled mirin. Not just mirin, but they specifically label their aji mirin as "hon" mirin. They sell wasabi as well, which I'm sure is horseradish with green food coloring. the fact that someone would lie to everyone and argue it's ok because it makes money is... really... how the world works. caveat emptor, bitch. +All because one salesman proposes one thing via marketing material, and doesn't get interrogated. ## hyperlitigator @@ -51,8 +52,8 @@ Maybe it worked. I can't find anything about how much food is donated per year s ### california prop 65 have you noticed that essentially every product ever has the "california proposition 65 warning"? in 1986, California voters banded together to say hey maybe it would be nice if we could avoid being poisoned a bit. -You had better believe that every. single. time. a company has to admit that their product is toxic, they frontload the state they want you to hate, and then the legal precedent they want you to dismiss. They want you to find it tedious. They want you to think it's dumb, and take their side against the threat of lawsuit. -It was a publicity stunt to get some politician elected. +You had better believe that every. single. time. a company has to admit that their product is toxic, they frontload the state they want you to hate, and then the legal precedent they want you to scoff at. They want you to find it tedious. They want you to think it's dumb, and take their side against the threat of lawsuit. +Proposition 65 was a publicity stunt to get some politician elected. [//TODO: veritasium video] Meanwhile, no one has ever been held accountable for contaminating every human alive with PFAS, in california or elsewhere. @@ -66,11 +67,12 @@ the myth endures, though. ### Hot beverages are hot -the famous one that we're all up to speed with by now - some company served some literally-skin-meltingly hot coffee to Stella Liebeck, her coffee got spilled, and I cannot stress this enough: her skin. got melted. 3rd degree burns. Micky D's lost the lawsuit, and forever more tells everyone how mad they are about it with the warning on the cup. maybe one might argue she wouldn't have tried the lawsuit if she had socialized medicine? Still, I guess we found her, the 1 person who won a lawsuit and got a payout. +the famous one that we're all up to speed with by now - some company served some literally-skin-meltingly hot coffee to Stella Liebeck, her coffee got spilled, and I cannot stress this enough: her skin. got melted. 3rd degree burns. Micky D's lost the lawsuit, and forever more tells everyone how mad they are about it with the warning on the cup. maybe one might argue she wouldn't have resorted to a lawsuit if she had socialized medicine? Still, I guess we found her, the 1 person who won a lawsuit and got a payout. ### arbitration: the end of justice -however. In 2018, Epic Systems Corp (no relation to Epic Games, as far as I know) engaged in wage theft - dollar per dollar the most common crime in the united states, every year, for many years - so Jacob Lewis attempted to start a class action lawsuit, in accordance with the National Labor Relations Act of 1935. +[//TODO: fully explain this. I forgor, so surely you should assume most people don't know wtf you were on about, either.] +however. In 2018, Epic Systems Corp (not Epic Games) engaged in wage theft - dollar per dollar the most common crime in the united states, every year, for many years - so Jacob Lewis attempted to start a class action lawsuit, in accordance with the National Labor Relations Act of 1935. As usual, the supreme court decided that these pesky laws need to get out of the way of a corporation harvesting wealth from the peasantry (well it was 5-4, exactly the split you would expect). Ever since then, **every** user agreement has included an arbitration clause. You know. Because apparently real lawsuits are unjust, real courts are overburdened... So we'll privatize justice, that certainly won't create a kangaroo court. @@ -90,7 +92,7 @@ you remember when cracker barrel had a redesign? It's current at time of writing [tv: jacksfilms "what does woke even mean"] [2 strawmen. 1 holding a sign: "haha, i don't know what you mean by "woke""] It kicked off a discussion on the left where they made fun of the right for the fact that the left wing doesn't know what "woke" means. -a company with a recognizable - if hokey - aesthetic has """streamlined""" to a hollow nothing that you couldn't pick out of a lineup from any of their so-called competitors. There is one culture, one aesthetic. and it is inoffensive. noncommittal. bland. +a company with a recognizable - if hokey - aesthetic has """streamlined""" to a hollow nothing that you couldn't pick out of a lineup from any of their so-called competitors. There is one culture, one aesthetic. and it is unobtrusive. noncommittal. bland. [fade up some communist anthem] as usual, the soul has been sacrificed on the altar of capitalism. [cut music] @@ -103,7 +105,7 @@ That's all. He's it. I have not found anyone else. As far as I know, his world a [beat] I watch Woolie Vs. or, used to. He's on indefinite hiatus, or whatever you want to call it; the gig economy doesn't have paternity leave. I hope youtube deigns to inform me of his return, when (or if) he does. At present, there are no remaining channels in the LP genre who FINISH their games, and have... insightful commentary, silence during game dialog, at least 1 interlocutor - [alternate] is that even really important? -i think so. resolving conflicting perspectives is usually more interesting. and it's surprisingly hard to manage a conversation while playing a game. +i think so. resolving conflicting perspectives is usually more interesting. and it's surprisingly hard to carry a conversation while playing a game. anyway. When he started his spinoff channel, he had a bizarre naming scheme for his episodes. Then he switched the order to part number, game title, episode title. Great! automatically self-sorting! Then someone told him he archives the episodes and has some weird-ass filing system that got broken. @@ -124,8 +126,8 @@ anyway, in 4 years I guess that'd be.. hang on let me grab a shell... 0.7599 ``` success chance is 30%, roll 4 times... failure chance for 1 run would be 1 minus success chance. so the chance of failing all 4 years would be failure chance to the power of 4. and so the chance of any other outcome, i.e. succeeding in 1 or more year, would be 1 minus that, which would be... just under 76%. - You see how that works, warframe wiki?! + warframe, like any freemium game, has an element of gambling. The majority of what you spend real money on is guaranteed odds. Or, more cynically, you're paying them money in order to *not* play the game. Which is why when I saw the ludicrous resource cost for cryotic for sibear, I vowed to master every weapon in the game except that. I had that done, for a second there, until they added more weapons. Anyway. While we're looking at the warframe wiki... In order to sell in china, they had to publicly disclose their drop rates. (what a cool thing for China to have done for its citizens. do you think they also disallow forced arbitration? oh, no, they're on the same page as us with that, damn.) So as a result of the public drop table, we get to see charts like this. [nekros acquisition] @@ -133,14 +135,14 @@ to get Nekros, a.k.a. the best warframe [alternate] he said, very transparently baiting comments. Look, in the game about shooting stuff to get loot to build gear to more effectively shoot stuff, etc... Nekros increases the loot you get. best. [alternate2] focus. **to get nekros**... -...you do the lephantis assassination. looking at the table, your inference is correct; lephantis will definitely always drop... precisely 1 of those 3 pieces. there is no world where you do that mission less than 3 times. that distinction doesn't really matter in practice. You do it once, you definitely have 1 piece. You do it a second time, you probably have 2 out of the 3 pieces. once you're in that situation, you ask yourself: how many runs do I do to get the last piece? This table helpfully says you're "nearly guaranteed" at 17 ish kills. It also says it's "expected" at 3 kills. what do those words mean? +...you do the lephantis assassination. looking at the table, your inference is correct; lephantis will definitely always drop... precisely 1 of those 3 pieces. it's not "a 1 in 3 chance that lephantis will drop this piece", it's "there is a 1 in 3 chance that this is the one piece lephantis drops". there is not a 1 in 27 chance that you get all 3 in 1. there is no world where you do that mission less than 3 times. that distinction doesn't really matter in practice. You do it once, you definitely have 1 piece. You do it a second time, you probably have 2 out of the 3 pieces. once you're in that situation, you ask yourself: how many runs do I do to get the last piece? This table helpfully says you're "nearly guaranteed" at 17 ish kills. It also says it's "expected" at 3 kills. what do those words mean? there's a link: > For more detailed definitions and information, visit here. [https://wiki.warframe.com/w/User_blog:FINNER/Warframe_Expected_%26_Nearly_Guaranteed_Numbers_-_An_Explanation] -_ In that one, wiki contributer Finner explains what is meant by "nearly guaranteed". it's a range, so at the lower end of that range is 99% chance, at the top of that range it's 99.99%. easy. what i have been salty about for like a decade is that his definition of "expected" is *bizarre*. It's not helped by the fact that I think he's referencing old data. [mark up a screenshot, circle where he talks about 6-7] -he divides the warframe drops into 3 "types". type 1 is like nekros, where all 3 parts drop from the same place. type 2 is where all 3 drop from a different place. (Type 3 is just equinox, with 8 drops needed. That one's a slog.) +he divides the warframe drops into 3 "types". type 1 is like nekros, where all 3 parts are on 1 drop table. type 2 is where all 3 drop from a different place. (Type 3 is just equinox, with 8 drops needed. That one's a slog.) [tyl regor mission, but duplicated in a grid, and as though multiple of them are speaking at once] I'm very excited now... But if we look at his math for type 2, we can see what he actually means by expected. Assume the law of large numbers applies to small numbers. I.e., if you want to roll 1 of the 6 sides of a d6, you just throw it 6 times. check out this page. @@ -154,7 +156,8 @@ That shows rolling a dice, averaging out. as in, "i have rolled a d6 with this n *then* my average will *converge on* 3.5. whoever it was that introduced this math is lost to the sands of time. for this game all about random drops, that person's peculiar concept of "expected" is on a massive portion of the pages across the wiki! What are the odds that just one guy can convince that wiki's community that this notion of expected value is weird? -[beat] + +[long beat] what are the odds that I, just one guy, can convince the rest of the world of any of the random things I insist on? Surely they're so staggeringly low as to be negligible. [alternate] people win the lottery every day.